The D-Phase MicroPEPS is a LAF-Ensemble (lagged average forecast) that is based upon 5 different high resolution models:
The individual members can be found in the respective experiments 'dphase_*' in this data base.
As time lagged forecasts the initialisation times t-3h and t-6h relative to the reference time t are incorporated. In a maximum the MicroPEPS might have 9 members (COSMOCH2: 3, LMK: 3, AROME: 1, CMCGEMH: 1, ISACMOL: 1). While COSMOCH2 and LMK generate new forecasts every 3 hours the other models run less frequently. In the 6 hour MicroPEPS time window AROME, CMCGEMH and ISACMOL provide one run each.
During operation the ensemble size might change due to the availability of the forecasts. The MicroPEPS uses equal weights for averaging its members.
The MicroPEPS generates probability forecasts by interpreting the overlapping areas of the single forecasts as members of a local ensemble. Due to the different domains of the deterministic models the size of the ensemble depends on location. Hence the quality of the forecasted probability distributions varies over the domain.
There will be four runs a day at 0, 6, 12 and 18 UTC.
CDOM: xfirst: 6.0 yfirst: 47.0 xsize: 168.0 ysize: 151.0 xinc: 0.03 yinc: 0.02 xnpole: 0.0 ynpole: 0.0
DDOM: xfirst: 2.0 yfirst: 43.0 xsize: 535.0 ysize: 351.0 xinc: 0.03 yinc: 0.02 xnpole: 0.0 ynpole: 0.0